Shifting Ground: How Contra Costa’s Housing Market is Evolving in Late 2025

Introduction

The real estate landscape in Contra Costa County is showing signs of softening after years of feverish activity. Prices, inventory, and buyer behavior are adjusting in response to mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and changing demand. Below is a snapshot of the most recent trends—what’s cooling, what’s holding steady, and what to watch for going into 2026.

Key Trends & Data

1. Home Prices Are Slightly Down

• As of August 2025, the median sale price in Contra Costa was $780,000, marking a 0.64% year-over-year decline. Redfin

• Zillow’s Home Value Index puts the average home value at $774,678, reflecting a 4.9% drop over the past year. Zillow

• However, other sources, like a local housing snapshot, peg the median more optimistically at $875,000, showing slight month-over-month growth of 0.8%. Leah Tounger Realty Group

Takeaway: The decline is modest—so not a crash, but a sign that the market is cooling from its peak levels.

2. Sales Volume & Inventory: Less Heat, More Balance

• Number of homes sold in August 2025: 876, down from 954 the previous year—an 8.2% drop. Redfin

• The median days on market have stretched from about 22 days last year to 28 days in 2025. Redfin

• Inventory is creeping upward in certain submarkets, giving buyers more options and slightly reducing the pressure. Leah Tounger Realty Group

Takeaway: The strong seller’s market is softening. While sellers still have leverage in well-located, well-priced homes, buyers are getting more breathing room.

3. Sales-to-List Ratios & Buyer Behavior

• Sale-to-list price ratios remain high but slightly lower than peak periods—100.3% is cited by Redfin. Redfin

• Fewer homes are selling above list price. Redfin

• More price cuts and longer market times are emerging in less desirable areas.

4. Broader Market Signals & Risks

• According to ATTOM, as of mid-2025, the median home sales price was around $850,000 (though this seems on the higher end relative to other sources). propertynavigator.attomdata.com

• Foreclosure activity is modest but rising: 125 properties filed for foreclosure in June 2025. propertynavigator.attomdata.com

• Environmental risks are non-trivial: wildfire risk affects about 84% of properties over 30 years, and 19% of properties face severe flood risk. Redfin

Implications for Key Players

What to Keep an Eye On in Late 2025 / Early 2026

1. Mortgage rates: Any drop could reheat certain submarkets.

2. Local employment trends: Tech, healthcare, and commuting patterns will heavily influence demand.

3. Development & Zoning changes: Infill, mixed-use projects, and ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit) policies may shift supply dynamics.

4. Climate & infrastructure resilience: With wildfire and flood risks rising, how local governments adapt (fire mitigation, drainage, insurance) could affect home values.